Vancouver gas prices: Analyst predicts cost of fuel to go up again

Gas prices could soon hit $2.40 per litre for regular in Metro Vancouver, one analyst says, blamed on the upcoming summer driving season south of the border.

En-Pro International Senior Pretroleum Analyst Roger McKnight predicts Metro Vancouver gas prices will hover around the $2.20 per litre mark for regular this week but as more Americans hit the road, demand will go up and supply will dry up. He suggests it will be a problem as much of the product we use comes from the U.S..

He expects the Memorial Day long weekend, which is on May 30 in the U.S., will kick start summer driving season in the U.S., similar to what the May long weekend did in Canada.

“The refineries are really quite low for this time of year. You’ve got people wanting something that the oil companies can’t make enough of, so there you go. When is it going to change? I can’t see anything getting better until the end of June,” McKnight said.

He thinks that’s when could see things stabilize somewhat and hit the high $1.90s.

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However, before we get there, the long weekend in the U.S. could mean prices hit $2.40 per litre for regular sooner than later. “The speculators will be building a cushion in to take care of the Memorial Day weekend in the U.S. and, as you know, prices in Canada aren’t made in Canada. The 49th parallel does not exist. The Lower Mainland really follows what happens in Seattle.”

The long weekend combined with unstable reserves is also something to keep in mind, McKnight says.

“I’m very concerned about what the U.S. is doing with exporting crude to Europe to make up for the Russia-Ukraine sanction situation. They’re taking crude right out of the petroleum reserve, putting it on a ship and sending it to Europe. It’s not even getting into the North American market whatsoever.”

GasBuddy.com says prices in the Vancouver area over the past week were 67 cents per litre higher than the same day one year ago and are more than 20 cents more than just a month ago.

Average gas prices around Vancouver fell just over a dime in the last week, according to the website, to $2.20 per litre for regular, while the national average is just under $2.

According to the Canadian Taxpayers’ Federation, 75 cents of every litre goes to tax.

B.C.’s government has resisted calls to suspend the tax, like other provinces have done as a result of the record-breaking prices. Alberta has temporarily stopped collecting the 13 cent per litre provincial gas tax, and Ontario plans to reduce fuel taxes starting next week.