Experts forecast 2026 to be among the hottest years on record in Canada
Posted January 20, 2026 7:35 am.
Canada is officially in the midst of a what forecasters indicate will be the beginning of the hottest five-year stretch in the country’s history.
A new forecast from Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) indicates that, following record-breaking global heat in 2023 and 2024, and a warm 2025, temperatures worldwide could reach historic highs this year — and Canada is not immune.
CLICK HERE TO LISTEN TO LIVE WEATHER COVERAGE!“Based on current modelling, the global mean temperature in 2026 is predicted to fall in the range of 1.35 °C and 1.53 °C above pre-industrial levels, meaning that global temperatures will remain at least 1.0 °C above pre-industrial levels for the 13th consecutive year. Looking ahead, Canada’s long-term forecasts indicate that the period from 2026 to 2030 will likely be the hottest five-year period on record,” the agency said.
It added there’s a “12 per cent chance of exceeding the 1.5 °C Paris Agreement threshold.”
The hope is the forecast will give governments, various industries, and communities the data required to prepare for the ongoing impacts of a warming climate.
“As global warming continues to affect people, communities, and infrastructure across Canada and around the world, access to reliable climate data supports informed planning and decision-making that helps protect Canadians and the places they call home. Taking action to prepare for and prevent the impacts of climate change is not just a moral obligation, it is an economic imperative. Building climate resilience is economically smart, fiscally responsible, and essential to protecting Canadians for generations to come.”
Canada’s last federal budget included the Climate Competitiveness Strategy, which aims to strengthen carbon markets to help the country with clean energy.
“Reducing greenhouse gas emissions protects human health and reduces climate impacts while supporting economic growth. These efforts help strengthen communities, protect the environment, and support Canada’s transition to a cleaner and more competitive economy.”
Scientists say rising temperatures around the world over the last few years could be partly to blame on a strong El Niño season in 2023-2024, which was also worsened by climate change.
“La Niña exerts a widespread cooling influence akin to ‘global air conditioning,’ whereas El Niño acts like a ‘global furnace.'” explained ECCC scientist Dr. Bill Merryfield.
“These effects are the main cause of the ups and downs that punctuate the steady rise in global temperatures. It’s likely that the global temperature record set in 2024 following the last El Niño will be broken the next time an El Niño occurs.”
Climate Data Canada says that on average, the country is warming at more than twice the global rate, while northern regions are warming three times as quickly.
“These rising temperatures have been accompanied by increasingly extreme heat waves attributed to climate change. Annual mean temperatures relative to a 1991 to 2020 baseline are forecast to exceed 1.0 °C in many parts of the country, and 2.0 °C across much of Canada’s North,” said the report.
Meanwhile, B.C. is experiencing one of the warmest Januaries on record — and the mild winter is slowly forcing cherry blossoms to bloom earlier than usual in some parts of Metro Vancouver.
1130 NewsRadio Vancouver Meteorologist Michael Kuss says it’s been a very mild month.
“We’re two-thirds of the way through, and temperatures are tracking about two degrees above average. It’s also been dry with only half the normal amount of precipitation.”
As warm as the month has been, Kuss points out it’s not a record-breaker.
“But we are tracking to be potentially the warmest January since 2010 — we’re about one degree off of that number, which was incredibly high. Our coldest low is just barely below freezing at YVR at -1.”
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