Number-crunching the economic benefits of hosting the World Cup in Canada

In less than two weeks, the first of 13 FIFA World Cup matches in Canada will kick off.

But with a challenging national economy, reports of a technical recession, and the B.C. government announcing a growing final bill for hosting costs, some are concerned about how much the World Cup will actually benefit the country.

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Toronto will host the first of its six matches at Toronto Stadium on June 12. Vancouver will host the first of its seven matches at BC Place on June 13.

Bank of Montreal (BMO) Chief Economist Doug Porter tells 1130 NewsRadio the economic impact will be “relatively modest and short-lived.”

“We do not believe it will have much in the way of long-lasting impact on either Toronto or Vancouver or the Canadian economy, but we do think, on net, it will be a modest positive,” said Porter.

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But he says that benefit hinges heavily on both international and local tourism.

“Foreign visitors who might not otherwise come to Canada and whatever money they spend here, whether they stay in hotels or go to restaurants or spend on merchandise, which can provide at least a temporary bump to the economy. And there is a possibility that there might be a bit of a longer-lasting impact just by introducing… Toronto and Vancouver to the rest of the world, if they didn’t already know it.”

“We believe that the economic impact will be relatively modest and short-lived.”

Porter says an economic bump followed the 2010 Winter Olympics in Vancouver and Whistler and after Expo ’86.

“The other channel in which this is done is through residents themselves maybe going out to a restaurant or a bar where they wouldn’t have normally gone out. We also recognize some of that spending may have taken place in any event. But at the margin, these kinds of big sporting events really do attract a lot of attention and can give, at least a short-term, lift to the hospitality industry.”

Porter admits the bank’s estimates, in terms of net gains to the country’s GDP, are broad. They range between $1.5 billion and $6.5 billion.

“In terms of extra domestic spending, we think it might add a $1 billion or so. If we were to frame it as a shared GDP, it could add, we think, about a tenth of a per cent to GDP that will mostly show up in June with just a little bit of a pushover into July. It doesn’t sound like much, but in an economy that’s really struggling to grow, even 0.01 per cent would be a nice lift to the Canadian economy.”

He says that’s welcome news after Statistics Canada reported last week that the country had entered a technical recession.

Canada spends $1 billion on hosting duties

“The economy actually contracted at a 0.1 per cent annual rate in the first quarter of the year, so if we had something like the World Cup in place, it would have actually erased that. And even when we look at it over the last four quarters, the overall economy has actually shrunk by 0.01 per cent, which by the way is a very small move, but this would have basically offset that.”

BMO’s figures come after a report last month by the Parliamentary Budget Officer, which found the country would spend more than $1 billion on hosting duties, a move slammed by groups like the Canadian Taxpayers’ Federation.

Porter says he approached the analysis with skepticism.

“I don’t necessarily believe a lot of the talk about big economic spin-offs or huge economic benefits from these major sporting events or something like Taylor Swift concerts, but I think in this case, you can make the argument that there is at least a small benefit to the host cities of Vancouver and Toronto.”

He adds that both cities should see a much-needed bump to their respective hospitality sectors — especially considering both the Vancouver Canucks and Toronto Maple Leafs missed the playoffs this year.

Economics professor warns that restaurants will be empty on non-match days

Senior economics lecturer at Concordia University, Moshe Lander, agrees with Porter’s assessment.

He argues that economic benefits for big events like the World Cup tend to be overstated as projections focus on a tiny part of the economy.

He says that hosting those events does not mean that restaurants and other businesses will be booming all month long. Among other reasons, because some residents decide to leave town during those times.

“The media loves to go to a local bar or outside the arena on a game night and show the craziness that’s going on during the game. And they say, ‘Well, this must be huge for the local economy.’ What they don’t notice is that on the off-game nights, those bars that were packed are completely empty,” Lander said.

“Anybody in Vancouver will tell you that in 2010, a whole group of them said, “I’m getting out of town when the circus is coming because I don’t want to be here with the chaos that comes with it. That’s when I’m going to take my trip to Kananaskis, or that’s when I’m going to go see family in Toronto.'”

He adds that those benefit calculations often forget about the tourists who are not visiting Vancouver because of the World Cup.

“I don’t have any extra money because the World Cup is in town. I don’t have any extra money because my team made it to the conference finals or the Stanley Cup final. So, if I don’t have any more money and nobody around me has any more money and if we’re spending it on this event, it just means we have to take our spending out of some other event.”

On Friday, the provincial government released its latest numbers for the World Cup, which had risen from the previous update in mid-2025. The province confirmed it may spend up to $729 million, but the number could climb as costs are incurred during the event.

—With files from Kyle Benning