B.C. snowpack melt closer to normal but drought still possible: experts

The latest provincial snowpack survey shows the outlook for potential droughts in B.C. is better than last year, but not great.

In the final ‘Snow Bulletin’ of the year, the provincial Ministry of Water, Land and Resource Stewardship reported that snowpack averaged 38 per cent of what’s considered normal across B.C. on June 15.

By the same date last year, the average had reached 4 per cent of normal.

“Typically, three-quarters of the annual snowpack melts by June 15,” the report said. “Despite a very early melt of low elevation snowpack in April, overall this year’s snow has melted at a typical rate, with 79 per cent of the snow now melted. This contrasts with 2023, when a record hot May led to melting of nearly all the measured mountain snowpack.”

In early April this year, the survey said the province’s snowpack was “extremely low,” with it averaging 63 per cent of normal.

Jonathon Boyd, a hydrologist with the B.C. River Forecast Center, told CityNews that, in comparison, conditions this week are worth celebrating.

“Compared to last year, the weather conditions have been extremely favorable for May and June. And really, last year was the anomaly in terms of just how incredibly hot and dry it was,” said Boyd.

The report says temperatures during the first half of June were “generally seasonable,” with colder temperatures and precipitation last weekend allowing for some snow accumulation and a return to a more normal average.

“So we did get the precipitation. It’s just a lot of it fell as rain. And then when we finally did get some snow accumulation and caught up in January, especially with some cold temperatures, then there was an extreme atmospheric river event in late January that essentially washed away a lot of the snow that had already arrived. It wasn’t until late February or early March where the Lower Mainland caught back up,” Boyd said.

The ministry says that while more normal melting has reduced some of the risk of flooding, drought is still a threat. 

“Several factors increased drought hazard this year, including low snowpack, early snowmelt at low elevations, persistent dry conditions, and seasonal weather forecasts suggesting above normal seasonal temperatures for most of the province. Favourable cooler weather conditions in May and June have delayed snowmelt at higher elevations.”

For now, the River Forecast Centre says the south coast of B.C. is listed as drought level 1, where “adverse impacts to socio-economic or ecosystem values are rare.”

Boyd said it’s a good idea to celebrate rain as it comes, but added that drought conditions predate the recent rains.

“The underlying issues are the ongoing drought — just the long-term precipitation deficits that go back to about summer of 2022 — and the general low snowpack. Those two factors are putting us behind the curve in terms of what could happen. But certainly, from a weather perspective, May and June have been fantastic.”

—With files from Cole Schisler.