Federal modelling shows COVID-19 cases, deaths declining in Canada

OTTAWA – New COVID-19 modelling shows deaths and cases of the virus are dropping significantly across Canada, and that we’re over the peak of the third wave.

Hospitalizations and ICU admissions are also seeing a decline, according to health officials who shared the update Friday.

“Over the past month, things have taken a great turn for the better, and we’ve doubled the number of COVID-19 vaccines administered from 10 million doses given as of late April to now over 22 million doses given across the country to date,” Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Theresa Tam said.

Here are the long and short term forecasts for the COVID pandemic in the new national modelling #cdnpoli pic.twitter.com/kOFOW1Tcmn

— Cormac Mac Sweeney (@cmaconthehill) May 28, 2021

“At the same time, our efforts have got us well and truly over the peak of the third wave nationally, and heading for a much better summer if we can stay the course,” she added.

Tam says barring any increases due to the May long weekend, Canada is expected to continue seeing case numbers drop as the weeks go on.

“Average case counts are now less than half what they were during the peak of the third wave in mid April, with under 3,400 cases being reported daily over the past seven days,” Tam explained. “And the number of people experiencing severe and critical illness is also decreasing, though at a slower pace as overall infection rates come down.”

When it comes to hospitalizations, Canada’s top doctor says the latest seven-day average has dropped by 34 per cent since peak activity.

This is a much rosier picture than last month’s projections, which showed Canada was in the midst of the third wave with rising variant number.

However, Canadians are being urged to remain vigilant.

We can see the finish line, but we need to stay the course, even when we have this encouraging news in front of us,” Health Minister Patty Hajdu said.

Tam says to date, more than 22 million doses of vaccines have been administered across the country since the rollout began late last year.

She says 62 per cent of eligible Canadian adults have received at least one dose of vaccine so far.

While the modelling shows good progress with vaccinations, Canada is still not at the goal of at least 75 per cent of Canadians receiving a first dose and 20 per cent with both doses the federal government had set to ease many restrictions.

The new modelling shows good progress with vaccinations, but not there yet for that 75/20 target the Feds have set to start easing many restrictions #cdnpoli pic.twitter.com/TQ0A5UQj3b

— Cormac Mac Sweeney (@cmaconthehill) May 28, 2021