B.C. COVID-19 hospitalizations could quadruple records, according to new modelling
Posted January 6, 2022 3:03 pm.
B.C.’s health care system could undergo “extreme pressure” this month, according to new independent COVID-19 modelling.
These potential scenarios have been put together by the BC COVID-19 modelling group, which is independent from government and made up of leading academics from our province’s top universities including UBC, SFU and UVic.
SFU epidemiologist Caroline Colijn says the numbers the group has run indicate daily infections could reach 100,000 a day, with hospitalizations four to 10 times higher than what we’ve seen during peaks in previous waves.
“One of the challenges is that it takes time for people to get sick and need hospital care, and it spreads incredibly quickly, so the window of opportunity to prevent that peak — the peak is soon — it’s showing it’s mid-January,” Colijn said in an interview with CityNews.
NEW: New modelling via UBC, SFU, UVic experts with @bcCOVID19group projects daily COVID-19 infections in this wave could reach 100,000 a day (not counts, infections). Models project hospitalizations could reach 4 to 10 times previous peaks. I'll have more on air @CityNewsVAN
— Martin MacMahon (@martinmacmahon) January 6, 2022
Given we still don’t know much about Omicron, the group says there is an element of uncertainty — but it will update its modelling based on data as it emerges from hard-hit places like the U.K.
“It could be that we’ve built more hospital capacity, but again, we have to think about not just beds, but staffing, when we think about how many people in hospitals because of COVID we’re able to accommodate,” said Colijn.
The report on this modelling acknowledges that information from other jurisdictions indicates a reduced need for ventilation and intensive care in vaccinated patients infected with Omicron, but given the rate of transmission is much higher with this variant, these experts suggest the need for expanded hospital space is “strongly indicated.”
