B.C. avalanche forecasters using simulations to predict danger
Posted January 19, 2022 4:15 pm.
Last Updated January 19, 2022 4:16 pm.
New computer simulations may help B.C. avalanche forecasters provide more accurate and detailed predictions about slides. The technology may also help better predict what might trigger an avalanche.
“Instead of just describing the avalanche danger on a one to five scale, we can describe whether that danger is due to new snow, wet snow or even old weak layers deeper in the snowpack,” said Simon Horton with SFU’s Avalanche Research Program.
Due to B.C.’s considerable snowfall this winter, Avalanche Canada’s rating has been “high” throughout the season, especially in the backcountry.
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Horton says with the computer simulations, avalanche experts can pinpoint the chances of an avalanche happening.
“[The technology] provides information to forecasters or avalanche experts to further refine their analysis process. So, it’s more of a decision support tool that they can use to improve their forecasts.”
Since the technology was developed in Switzerland, where according to Horton the climate is much different than B.C.’s, he says it will take some time to understand how efficient the technology is in B.C.
“It’s typically a colder, drier climate [in Switzerland] than what we see in a lot of the mountains of B.C. So my colleagues are interested in seeing how all these predictions could work if you moved it into different mountain ranges. By coming into Canada with some Canadian datasets, we looked at Rogers Pass and Glacier National Park a very snowy place, as well as Whistler.”
Horton says as time goes on, experts in the avalanche field will become fluent in the technology, making backcountry skiing and snowboarding significantly less risky.
