Return to normal hinges on vaccination rates: new COVID B.C. modelling

VANCOUVER (NEWS 1130) — B.C.’s COVID-19 cases have surged in recent weeks, now new modelling is showing exactly how and why that’s happening in the province.

The unvaccinated are linked to the climb in both cases and hospitalizations this summer, according to the province.

B.C.’s provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry says unvaccinated people make up 81 per cent of the hospitalizations in the last month. Crude hospitalization rate shows the unvaccinated are 17 times higher than among the fully vaccinated.

“So this means if I’m a 50-year-old person who is unvaccinated. I have 12 times the risk of getting infected with COVID-19, and 34 times the chance of ending up in hospital from somebody who’s been vaccinated, who’s the same age as me,” Henry said Tuesday. 

After adjusting for age differences, unvaccinated individuals are at a greater risk of infection, hospitalization, or death.

People 19 – 39 make up most of the new cases, followed by those within the 40 – 59 age group.

“We know in that age group that they were the last of our age groups to access immunization,” Henry said. She added that many in that age group are also working in close contact with others, or may live in the same settings.

Children and those over the age of 80 are not showing an increase in cases. She says that is due to high vaccination rates among the province’s oldest population.

In the past month, fully vaccinated individuals accounted for 15 per cent of cases and 13 per cent of hospitalizations.

“The numbers of people who are being hospitalized around the province right now are highest in the 40 to 59 year age group,” Henry explained. 

70% of cases in 25% unvaxxed
Hospitalizations are 81% of those who are unvaxxed.
Deaths still in elderly – 1/3 of deaths are in LTC many fully vaxxed as they are still vulnerable because immune response less than in younger. #bcpoli #covid19 @NEWS1130 pic.twitter.com/HS52mjH1Md

— LizaYuzda (@LizaYuzda) August 31, 2021

B.C.’s hot spots

The biggest areas of concern remain in the Interior and Northern B.C., which have lower immunization rates compared to the Lower Mainland.

In the Interior: Golden, Grand Forks, Creston, Nelson, Enderby, Vernon, Central Okanagan, Southern Okanagan, and Trail show the highest average daily rate of new cases in the last week of August.

With only 15 per cent of the population, the Interior has consistently seen more than 50 per cent of the new COVID-19 cases.

In Northern B.C.: Nisga’a, Nechako, Peace River South, Fort Nelson, Kitimat, Prince George, and Prince Rupert make up the hot spots, according to officials.

There has been a gentle increase in Fraser Health and Vancouver Coastal Health of new cases.

Henry did not rule out more regional measures to “make a difference” and says that they show they do work to bring down overall case numbers. She says, in that case, broad province-wide measures will not necessarily be brought in.  

Looking ahead to September

There is some optimism as B.C.’s transmission rates are levelling off slightly. Although cases will not drop significantly, B.C.’s top doctor says they are not expected to spike.

“We were at a place where we had a lot of transmission where we were up about 1.5 which means for every person who is infected they passed it on to almost two other people. We’re now back down, across the board to somewhere very close to one,” Henry said. 

She says we will not see the COVID-19 cases at the level we saw earlier the pandemic, due to the current immunization status.

But a small increase in immunization will assist to bring hospitalization cases down, which is why Henry urges the thousands of British Columbians holding out from getting their shot, to get one right away.

“That’s important, and that it can make a difference in our being able to get back to those things that we need to do in our lives, particularly we know that having vaccines, means that we can get back to school safely, we can get back to university safely, we can get back to work, we can get back to doing things like going to hockey games, like going to football games — as long as we have vaccinated people together, the risk goes down dramatically,” Henry said.

B.C.’s Tuesday COVID-19 Update

Meanwhile, B.C. has recorded an additional 655 COVID-19 cases in the province as the Interior Health continues to record a majority of cases. Two people from the region have also passed away.

Out of the infections reported Tuesday, Fraser Health has accounted for 186 and Vancouver Coastal Health has recorded 99. In the Island Health region, there are 68 new cases, and 60 new cases in Northern Health.

Of the 6,045 active cases 187 people are in hospital and 103 are in intensive care.

In a joint statement from Dr. Henry and Dix, they added that from Aug. 16-29 people who were not fully vaccinated “accounted for 80.2% of cases and 88.7% of hospitalizations.”

Since the start of the pandemic, 166,068 people have been infected with COVID-19, 157,941 of those people who tested positive have recovered but overall 1,816 have died. In total, 7,463,858 COVID-19 vaccines have been distributed.

So far, 84.3 per cent of eligible vaccine recipients over the age of 12 in the province have been received their first dose of the COVID-19 vaccine and 76.5 per cent received their second dose.

There has been one new healthcare facility outbreak at Kamloops Seniors Village which is in the Interior Health region.

There are also 19 other active outbreaks.