Lower Mainland Omicron cases likely peaked, health-care strain remains

Omicron infections in Metro Vancouver and across the Lower Mainland have likely hit their peak, according to the province.

B.C.’s latest modelling indicates the Omicron-fuelled curve we’re seeing here is similar to other places where the variant is dominant.

In a chart comparing Omicron wave case trends in Vancouver Coastal and Fraser Health with those of select other urban centres, such as London and New York City, both Lower Mainland health regions appear to follow the same general trajectory.

However, while both Vancouver Coastal and Fraser Health’s curves rose at almost identical rates, Fraser Health’s descent is shown to have begun over a week before Vancouver Coastal’s.

Modelling data showing Omicron wave case trends over time, provided by the Province of B.C. on Jan. 14, 2021. (Courtesy: Government of B.C.)

The latest modelling also says the risk of ending up in the hospital due to COVID-19 across all age groups is still highest among people who are unvaccinated.

There is still a lot of COVID infection happening, and it is expected to be a tough few weeks for the health-care system.

Modelling data provided by the Government of B.C. on Jan. 14, 2021. (Courtesy: B.C. Government)

To guide upcoming health orders, the province says it will be reporting hospital census data on a daily basis starting Friday.

“There’s a lag of about a week before you see the peak of transmission in the community. Then there’s a lag of about a week before you you see the peak of new admissions to a hospital,” said provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry.

“It’s a different game that we’re in now. It’s a different pandemic, and we’ve had to adapt, adjust, and make changes with the imperfect information that we have, and in real time essentially.”

Modelling data provided by the Government of B.C. on Jan. 14, 2021. (Courtesy: B.C. Government)

The latest modelling also says the risk of ending up in the hospital due to COVID-19 across all age groups is still highest among people who are unvaccinated.

Omicron’s shortened incubation period makes it difficult to rely on contact tracing, she says. It has also affected younger people before moving onto an older age group, and spreads more quickly than variants that caused other waves.

“The height of our peak reflects the PCR testing. We’ve been at our capacity with PCR tests for a number of weeks now as Omicron is really transmitted in our communities,” said Henry.

Modelling data provided by the Government of B.C. on Jan. 14, 2021. (Courtesy: B.C. Government)

Ontario and Quebec are slightly ahead of B.C., and have also seen a decrease in community transmissions.

In B.C., Omicron spread most quickly in Vancouver Coastal, Fraser Health, and Island Health.

“It really is the highly populous Lower Mainland that is driving the testing curve,” said Henry.

“We need to understand, who is it who’s being hospitalized and what can we do to affect that trajectory in the next few weeks?”

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The uptick in younger people getting COVID-19 from Omicron is notable, and seniors are still at extreme risk.

“We are seeing a dramatic increase again in people over age 70 who are having severe illness and going to the hospital, and unfortunately that is where we are seeing an update in COVID deaths as well,” she said. “Age is still the number one risk factor for having severe illness.”

Hospitalization risk is still the highest among unvaccinated people across all ages, who are more likely to get infections from the virus.

Seventy per cent of people in critical care in the past month are people who have not been vaccinated, and two thirds of people who have died of COVID in the past month are people were not vaccinated.

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UBC data expert Dr. Sally Otto told CityNews both doctors are likely correct “to different extents,” adding while Omicron caused a rapid spike in cases, the decline is expected to be similarly swift. What that means, she says, is that the peak period for infections is expected to be relatively short.

Measures protecting long-term care homes are in place, but there are still several cases of “milder illness” in these facilities. It helps that many of the residents there also have their booster shots, said Henry.

“I recognize that clear, definitive, unchanging guidance is what we really want, but COVID is not allowing for that. The virus is changing and we need to adapt as well,” she said.

Between the end of November and Jan. 7, the province looked at people who had the Delta and Omicron variants and/or unknown issue. Compared to Delta, people with Omicron haven’t been as sick, so they don’t need as much care to recover.

“The same thing goes for severe enough illness that leads to death,” she said.

Henry also spoke about how health-care workers are being impacted by the spread of Omicron.

“An impact on the health-care system is now affected by two things: One is numbers of people in hospital, how long they stay there, but also the fact that this is infecting health-care workers and even with illness that doesn’t make you go to a hospital. Having to be at home, recovering from their illness has led to staff being off in higher numbers than ever before in this pandemic,” she said.

Dr Henry: Vaccination protection is what is keeping hospitals from being entirely overwhelmed as stretched as they are
47% of ppl in hosp are mostly unvaxxed adults
70% in ICU in past month are unvaxxed
2/3 of deaths in past month were unvaccinated#bcpoli #covid19 @CityNewsVAN pic.twitter.com/LzIHS27ZH9

— LizaYuzda (@LizaYuzda) January 14, 2022

Monitoring wastewater can act as “a barometer of how much virus is in a community,” she said. It has shown that B.C. is on a decreasing trajectory of concentration of the virus in the water.

On Thursday, B.C. set a new all-time record for hospitalizations, with 534 patients. There were 102 people in the ICU, which was a 13 per cent increase from a week ago.

On Tuesday, Henry said based on other areas of the country and world, infections in B.C. might continue to surge through January before levelling off.

However, Henry and Canada’s chief public health officer, Dr. Theresa Tam, have been seemingly at odds with their messaging, with Tam recently saying cases have been rising.

UBC data expert Dr. Sally Otto told CityNews both doctors are likely correct “to different extents,” adding while Omicron caused a rapid spike in cases, the decline is expected to be similarly swift. What that means, she says, is that the peak period for infections is expected to be relatively short.

Stay cautious while the Omicron wave progresses and hopefully dies down, Henry advised on Friday.

Dr Henry: Vaccination protection is what is keeping hospitals from being entirely overwhelmed as stretched as they are
47% of ppl in hosp are mostly unvaxxed adults
70% in ICU in past month are unvaxxed
2/3 of deaths in past month were unvaccinated#bcpoli #covid19 @CityNewsVAN pic.twitter.com/LzIHS27ZH9

— LizaYuzda (@LizaYuzda) January 14, 2022

It is unclear whether booster doses will be approved for kids aged 12 to 17. Henry says they’re not sure if children need them. She says there should be more information on that next week or the week after.

She plans to talk more about the possibility of loosening or lifting restrictions next week.

646 people in hospital with COVID-19 as B.C. changes how it reports data

A large jump in the number of people the province is reporting as hospitalized with COVID-19 Friday does not reflect a spike in new admissions, but rather a change in how these cases are counted.

There are currently 646 people in hospital, up from 534 — a record high– on Thursday. This jump comes after Henry announced that the province will now be reporting every person who has tested positive in a B.C. hospital regardless of the reason for their hospitalization. Previously, only those requiring hospital care as a direct result of the virus were counted.

For those who follow the data closely note there is a change coming to hosp data today to use census incl -those in hosp because of covid
-found to have covid when in hosp (about 45%)
-part of hosp outbreak#bcpoli #covid19 @CityNewsVAN

— LizaYuzda (@LizaYuzda) January 14, 2022

The need to follow heightened safety protocols for patients with COVID-19, Henry said, adds to the strain on the hospital system. Of those in hospital, 95 are in intensive care.

Friday’s update comes after provincial modelling was released suggesting that while new infections driven by the Omicron variant have likely peaked, hospital numbers are expected to continue to rise. Concerns over a collapse of the healthcare system due to both an influx of COVID-19 patients and staff shortages due to illness is one of the reasons the province says restrictions are likely to remain in place.

There has been one new health-care facility outbreak at Royal Jubilee Hospital in Island Health. Eight other outbreaks have been declared over, for a total of 46 active outbreaks. Details about which facilities are experiencing outbreaks are available online.

Six more people have passed away in B.C., three in Fraser Health, two in Interior health, and one in island Health.

There have been an additional 2,275 cases in the past 24 hours. The number of new infections is acknowledged to be a dramatic undercount of the number of people who have contracted the virus, as testing capacity has been overwhelmed.

On the vaccination front, 83.3 per cent of those five and over have received two doses, while 89 per cent have one shot. Of those 12 and over who are eligible for a booster, 30.5 per cent have received a third dose.

With files from Liza Yuzda and Lisa Steacy