Vancouver gas prices could see 14-cent drop into weekend, analyst says
Posted March 10, 2022 7:03 am.
Last Updated May 23, 2022 8:33 am.
If you can hold off on filling up your vehicle for a day or so, you may catch a break.
Some analysts say Canadian cities could see prices drop as early as Friday. In Metro Vancouver, Roger McKnight with En-Pro International says that decrease could be as much as 14 cents for a litre of regular.
And @RogerMcKnight predicts it will be a 14-cent drop for Metro Vancouver tomorrow. https://t.co/tRRYUCO1PD
— Mike Lloyd
(@llikemoyd) March 10, 2022
This comes as communities across the country have seen the cost of filling up at the pump rise significantly over the past couple of weeks. The Russia-Ukraine crisis, as well as demand, and the pandemic have all contributed to rising prices.
In the Greater Vancouver area, the price at the pump has reached new heights — topping $2 for the first time over the past several days. As of Thursday, the price for a litre of regular has ranged between $2.059 to $2.149 in the region.
Related video: Vancouver gas prices hit $2/litre
Other parts of the country could also see price declines going into the weekend. In southern Ontario and Montreal, the price at the pumps could drop by 15 cents to about an average of $1.759. Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Alberta could see a 12-cent drop, McKnight says, while Halifax could see a 13-cent decline.
Vijay Muralidharan, director of consulting at Kalibrate in Calgary, agrees that in the immediate term, gas prices could drop about 10 or 11 cents in the coming days. However, he admits it’s hard to put an exact figure on it.
“Each marketer gets their product from different people, different refineries. And those refineries buy crude at a different price, they don’t buy it at a uniform price — they have pre-contracts. So it’s difficult to say how much it’s going to drop by,” he explained.
The problem B.C. faces, he notes, is partly where our gas comes from. Washington state refineries operate under different pricing and demand structures than other parts of the U.S.
Muralidharan says a decline in prices could also come in the weeks ahead, though he stopped short of calling it a sure thing.
“I’m not going to say for definite, because I’ve seen the crude pricing — which dictates 62 per cent to 65 per cent of gasoline pricing in Canada — took a kind of a dive since yesterday,” he said Thursday.
“Now it’s going to take a few weeks to bake into the gasoline pricing. I expect around a month, month and a half for it to bake in because, usually, crude trades a month forward from the day it’s trading right now.”
However, he warns the driving season is just a head — that’s typically when we see gas prices rise again.
“Net-net, you might not see a deep fall unless crude takes a bigger plunge — like a deeper plunge than what it is today, which I don’t see happening because the war in Ukraine is still on, the sanctions (against Russia) are still on. Sorry, I wish I had better news,” he told CityNews.
What’s behind B.C.’s high gas prices?
While many Canadians are enduring a hit to their wallets, the pain appears to be even higher in Metro Vancouver, where drivers pay more in gas taxes. Compared to virtually every other region of B.C., locals pay an additional 18.5 cents per litre, which goes to TransLink to help pay for local transit.
Including the TransLink levy, Metro Vancouver motorists pay a total 73 cents tax on every litre of gas. Of that, 10 cents per litre is due to the carbon tax, which is set to go up to 11 cents in April.
There have been calls for the B.C. government to step up and do something to help bring relief. However, the province has shown no sign of budging.
In Alberta, the premier announced this week that his government would be pausing its 13-cent-per-litre tax on gas and diesel. When asked if B.C. would be making similar moves, the deputy premier would not commit.
Solicitor General Mike Farnworth has maintained the gas price “situation” is beyond B.C.’s control.
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As prices continue to soar, many people have been holding out on filling up, with the hopes of some relief. But, there are many who are eager for a deal now. Some Point Roberts gas station owners are desperately trying to get the attention of Canadians, saying drivers could see big differences if they drive across the border to the enclave.
Point Roberts is only accessible by land through B.C. and there is an exemption from Canada’s COVID testing requirements for anyone crossing the border from the US enclave.
One station owner says there is the equivalent to a 40 to 50 cent difference in the price of a litre of regular compared to Greater Vancouver.
-With files from Claire Fenton, Saif Kaisar, Lasia Kretzel
