B.C. on the brink of fall wave of COVID-19: modelling group
Posted October 5, 2022 2:38 pm.
An independent COVID-19 modelling group in B.C. has released its latest report and warns the province is on the brink of another wave this fall.
The BC COVID-19 Modelling Group, which consists of academics and health experts, predicts the BA.5 subvariant of Omicron will continue infecting people at a high rate as the public’s immunity falters.
Its latest report, released Wednesday, takes into account hospitalizations and recorded cases, but warns the underreporting of cases is “extremely high” with about “100-fold” more infections than what’s actually reported.
“Underreporting the impacts of COVID make it challenging for the public to have a full understanding of current risks,” the report said.
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The report acknowledges how the BA.5 subvariant wave, which began in January of this year, has not followed the pattern of previous waves.
“The BA.5 wave does not display the rise-and-fall wave typical of epidemics, with longer lasting spread consistent with more individuals becoming susceptible over time due to waning immunity,” the report said.
It adds waning immunity appears to have an effect on infection rates.
“In European nations and Canadian provinces, we are currently seeing a rise in the growth rate from day to day. None of the new variants are common enough and grow fast enough to account for this behaviour. Instead, it is a clear signal that immunity is waning in the population.”
The report says the severity of next wave of COVID can be reduced if there is a “substantial uptake of vaccinations.”
In B.C., invitations for booster doses have been sent out to many people who have gone six months or more since their last dose. Appointments can be made any time for anyone five years of age or older.
For more information on COVID-19 vaccines and appointments, click here.
