Metro Vancouver gas prices: What to expect this summer

The unofficial kickoff to the summer driving season is just around the corner, so what can you expect when it comes to gas prices around Metro Vancouver in the coming months?

Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, says the region has seen a lot of relief since the record highs of last year.

“Gas prices across Vancouver a year ago were about $2.19 a litre, impressively. Today, we’re almost 40 cents below that,” he told CityNews Thursday, adding prices have been dropping for the past four weeks.

The average price around Metro Vancouver is currently sitting at $1.81 per litre of regular, with De Haan adding that’s around what drivers should consistently see throughout the coming months.

“I’m hopeful that, unless we get some sort of out-of-left-field economic shift or a major hurricane, we could see most of the summer below the $2 a litre mark,” he explained.

Metro Vancouver broke gas price records for the region in 2022, topping $2.35 per litre of regular.

So what’s changed since then? De Haan explains there are a number of factors at play.

One, he says, is a slowdown in the broader economy — locally, nationally, and internationally.

“That’s providing a well-needed buffer. Last year, there simply wasn’t enough refining capacity to keep up with demand, and that’s why gasoline prices decoupled from the price of oil, simply because Canadians, Americans, the global economy was consuming a lot more refined product than we really had on hand. And that was exacerbated by Russia’s war on Ukraine, which impacted the flow of oil on the world market,” De Haan said.

However, he notes a lot of those “worst fears” about the invasion’s impact on the flow of oil “have not yet materialized.”

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Additionally, he says the rise in interest rates in North America has also had an effect on consumption, with many growing more anxious about the state of the economy and not filling up as often.

While De Haan doesn’t anticipate the pain at the pump Metro Vancouver drivers experienced last year to repeat itself this summer, people in the region still continue to pay more for a fill-up than their other Canadian counterparts.

What many drivers consider the norm here is quite different from what others do around the country.

“Most Canadians would probably say that normal is somewhere between $1.25 and $1.45 (per litre of regular.) In fact, prior to COVID, that’s kind of the highest we went. It’s kind of crazy to think about those days now,” De Haan explained. “For B.C., well, prices last summer hit almost $2.40 a litre. Back in 2021, we got to the mid and upper dollar-a-litre range, and I think this summer is going to be very similar to 2021.”

He says the carbon tax also continues to play a role, adding as taxes go up, the chances of going back to lower prices falls.

But if you have a road trip in your summer plans, De Haan says you can expect prices to be about 40 to 50 cents below where they were a year ago.