B.C. home sales to dip this year, recover in 2024: forecast

B.C.’s real estate market is feeling the pressure from rising interest rates, but this will ease a bit next year, the British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) says.

The number of homes sold in Vancouver and across B.C. is expected to decline slightly — around 2.8 per cent — this year compared to 2022, but it is forecast to grow around 6.1 per cent in 2024, according to the association’s latest analysis.

Related links:

• B.C. home sales starting to cool as interest rates heat up: BCREA

• B.C. real estate prices trending up, association says

“The B.C. housing market has been more resilient than expected in 2023, with both home sales and prices holding up well in the face of sharply higher interest rates,” BCREA chief economist Brendon Ogmundson said.

“However, we expect sales to cool as the result of renewed Bank of Canada tightening and a delay in expectations regarding the timing of future Bank of Canada rate cuts from early next year to perhaps the end of 2024 or even mid-2025.”

Home prices across B.C. are expected to follow the same trend, with a drop of two per cent this year and growth in 2024.

“As home sales return to normal levels next year, we anticipate prices will rise 2.4 per cent to an annual average of just over $1 million, though there is risk to the upside on price growth given the state of housing supply,” the BCREA said.

Greater Vancouver home sales are also expected to follow the same pattern, with an anticipated drop of 4.3 per cent this year and an increase of 7.1 per cent next year.

Unsurprisingly, despite this year’s decline in unit sales, prices in the region are not expected to drop at any point. The average sale price of all homes sold across Greater Vancouver is forecast to climb 0.2 per cent this year, reaching around $1,275,000, and then a further 1.2% in 2024 to around $1,290,000.