B.C. real estate market to rebound in 2024, BCREA forecasts

Falling rates for fixed mortgages and the potential for interest rate cuts later this year have realtors optimistic for a rebound, according to the British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA).

The association says mortgage conditions were tough last year, but its first quarter forecast is calling for an eight per cent jump in unit sales in 2024.

“In 2023, the housing market faced headwinds due to elevated mortgage rates, but the recent decline in fixed mortgage rates and potential Bank of Canada rate cuts present an optimistic outlook for 2024,” said BCREA chief economist Brendon Ogmundson.

“As we navigate through 2024, we expect a delicate balance between rising sales and normalizing inventories, which should lead to a relatively quiet year for prices.”

The impact on prices will depend on how inventory changes over the year, the BCREA says.

“While risks to the economy remain, our view is that new listings normalize following a lull in activity last year,” it said. “That normalization of new listing activity should result in a more balanced market this year with relatively stable pricing.”

The board forecasts that, in Greater Vancouver alone, home sales will increase more than nine per cent in 2024. It is also forecasting a further jump of 12 per cent in 2025.

The average sale price for homes across the province was just over $970,000 in 2023, and the board forecasts this to increase 1.7 per cent, to just under $988,000. In Greater Vancouver, the average home price was just over $1.28 million in 2023, and this is expected to increase one per cent to $1.29 million in 2024.