BC United sees slip in polling as NDP, Conservatives pull ahead

With 2024 marking an election year in B.C. politics, the latest polling of parties shows BC United is struggling to hold on to the liberal-voter base.

Research Co.’s latest poll shows the BC NDP remains first among voters, at 46 per cent. Coming in second is the Conservative Party of BC, at 25 per cent.

BC United comes in at third, with 17 per cent support, while the Greens follow with 11 per cent.

Research Co. President Mario Canseco says over half of respondents who voted for the then-BC Liberals in 2020 would not cast a ballot for BCU, with Kevin Falcon’s party seeing support fall to John Rustad’s BC Conservative Party.

“It’s going to be complicated because you have them both fighting for that opportunity to say I am the one who should be leading the charged and bringing back the centre-right voter to keep the NDP at bay, but it has been more difficult for BC United at this stage,” Canseco explained.

BC United rebrand

He points out BC United’s rebrand may be part of the reason the party is seeing a decline in support — even if the opposite was the goal.

“There still might be some confusion about what BC United is when you think about the BC Liberals. The reality is that the numbers for Kevin Falcon, as far as his own approval rating, are not where they used to be. He used to be at 44 per cent, now the numbers have dropped to the low 30s, which is roughly the same place where we find John Rustad. The difference is John Rustad started at 19 per cent,” Canseco told CityNews.

“This was supposed to be a unifying factor in making all of the centre-right voters support a specific party. But now we see the Conservatives connecting well in specific areas, where Kevin Falcon’s rating isn’t as high.”

Canseco says age may play a big role in BC United’s downfall or success.

“The fact that BC United isn’t really galvanizing the level of support that they used to have and now you have the opposition voter, particularly younger and middle-aged, looking at the Conservatives as the option they want to support,” he said.

Rustad’s issue, Canseco says, is a lack of name recognition — noting he “hasn’t become a household name” yet.

Leader support

Meanwhile, the polling shows David Eby’s NDP is continuing to hold on to a double-digit lead. Canseco says one of the things helping the New Democrats is “the level of connection they’ve established on the housing file.”

“We continue to see housing as the number one issue facing the province — 39 per cent of people feel that way. Health care is in second place, economy comes in third, and we don’t see a significant animosity toward the NDP when it comes to housing. I think certain announcements that they’ve done and things that they’re planning to do are really connecting, particularly with younger voters. And this is one of the things that is helping,” Canseco explained.

The Research Co. survey finds Premier Eby’s approval rating stands at 53 per cent. BC Greens Leader Sonia Furstenau has an approval rating of 34 per cent.