TransLink warns of economic impacts due to potential service cuts

There are warnings about immediate, widespread, and long-lasting impacts on the local economy, including more traffic congestion, in a new report going to TransLink’s Mayors’ Council Thursday morning.

The analysis predicts what could happen if the transit authority is forced to make drastic cuts to service.

In July, TransLink’s CEO indicated service could be slashed up to 50 per cent in some cases as the transit provider faces a $600 million annual funding shortfall, starting in 2026.

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“The economic impact analysis shows a significant reduction in transit services within Metro Vancouver would have immediate and lasting negative consequences for households’ affordability and the region’s competitive advantage,” reads a summary of the new report from TransLink staff.

It predicts $1,000 in annual additional costs for a typical household, and $1 billion annually for the regional economy, for everything from the cost of finding alternative transportation to increased ICBC premiums, to the increased cost of goods due to freight and truck congestion.

The staff report warns traffic congestion could increase by 20 per cent, equivalent to an additional 200+ hours stuck in traffic for the average household annually.

“Metro Vancouver’s reputation as a region with a high quality of life would be compromised as fewer individuals are able to access employment and overall connectivity declines,” the report stated.

“Rising unemployment, wage declines, and reductions in GDP are all likely consequences of transit services being reduced.”

It also foresees an erosion of the region’s competitive advantage in the global talent market.

“Metro Vancouver would face challenges attracting and retaining businesses and skilled labour within the region. This would likely compromise Metro Vancouver’s current and future growth trajectories, limiting economic prosperity and driving greater inequity.”

This report comes as TransLink has been pushing for more operational funding from senior levels of government to help it bridge its looming funding gap.

In a joint meeting Thursday morning with the TransLink board, Mayor’s Council Chair Brad West said, “This is not a bluff,” repeating a sentiment he shared at a Sept. 17 press event.

“This is not designed to force the province to try and do something,” West added. “This is reality.”

He says the report indicates how disastrous cuts would be to the local, regional, and provincial economies.

Jasroop Gosal with the Surrey Board of Trade says the region can’t afford any erosion to its competitiveness.

“Our region has been left behind when it comes to transportation and transit infrastructure,” said Gosal. “And we know how important that is, not only to the City of Surrey but our entire region.”

Without a strong transit economy, Gosal says the Lower Mainland is compromised in its ability to co-locate businesses to the region.

The billion-dollar hit to the economy is one Shaena Furlong with Richmond Chamber of Commerce says businesses can’t afford.

“Richmond is a hub for freight and logistics companies. For every car that is added to the road, we see more time spent in traffic for those trucks,” said Furlong.

Dave Earle of the BC Trucking Association tells 1130 NewsRadio that every dollar spent by the industry is passed down to the consumer. Simply, Earle says, if it costs more to move goods, those goods will cost more to buy.

Earle says his association has seen data from TransLink suggesting that the trucking industry can expect a $10 million loss in productivity due to congestion. He says even that number seems like a conservative estimate.

“We think that’s really low. The actual amount is likely a lot higher than that… Every dollar in extra cost that is incurred by our industry ultimately gets passed on in the price of things that are delivered. So really, all of these costs that are being incurred because of congestion and taxation and fees, you and I pay it; the consumer pays it at the end of the day,” said Earle.

Earlier, the council called on the federal government and provincial candidates to outline their plans for improving and investing in transit for the region.

In the meeting Thursday, West again insisted that the issue is non-partisan.

“We’ve chosen to stand here and fight because we know what our residents need and deserve in this. So that is why the report is on the agenda here today, and I hope all political parties are listening,” said West.

—With files from Michelle Meiklejohn