BC NDP pull ahead in latest poll with 5 days before election

Days ahead of the provincial election, a new poll shows the BC NDP inching in front of the BC Conservatives.

The poll, from the Angus Reid Institute, says 45 per cent of voters would cast their ballots in favour of the NDP after the leaders debate — ahead of the Conservatives, with 40 per cent.

Angus Reid president Shachi Kurl says ‘voter intention’ doesn’t necessarily mean there aren’t ridings where the BC NDP could lose.

She says support for the NDP has declined overall since the last election in 2020 but has picked up over the last three weeks. Kurl says a major factor in the change is voters prioritizing health-care.

“Health-care is starting to emerge as a stronger issue, and on that stronger issue, David Eby is seen as that just a little bit stronger,” said Kurl.

The poll finds what it’s calling a “statistical tie” in communities northeast of Vancouver that were once right-leaning strongholds, but flipped NDP in 2020.

Vote intention in the Fraser Valley and Interior BC shows the Conservatives pulling six and sixteen per cent leads, respectively.

Meanwhile, in Surrey and Richmond, the NDP are pulling slightly ahead with 49 per cent.

But, the institute says the NDP’s advantage is “not necessarily predicated by strong enthusiasm.” 

“Against the backdrop of increasing voter frustration on key files such as cost of living, the addictions crisis, public safety, and health-care, fully half of New Democrat supporters say they are backing the party because they ‘really dislike’ the other options available to them,” said the poll report.

Kurl says campaign dynamics, including recently uncovered racist and hateful remarks made by Surrey South BC Conservatives candidate Brent Chapman, do affect the way British Columbians think about casting their vote.

“For many voters, it’s the first time they may have been engaging in the campaign and really getting a sense of who the leaders are and what they say they stand for. Definitely what candidates say and what they do can have an impact, particularly when all politics is local,” she said.

Advance voting resumes Wednesday morning at 8 a.m., and the final election day is Oct. 19.