‘One way or another’: political analyst says Rustad out of BC Conservatives whether he likes it or not

After a day of upheaval for the party, the question of who leads the BC Conservatives is still unanswered.

On Wednesday, party officials released a statement, claiming the board of directors passed a motion certifying that John Rustad is “professionally incapacitated and unable to continue” as leader.

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The move followed the publication of a letter to the party’s president, which claimed 20 Conservative MLAs had “executed” statements, saying they’ve lost confidence in Rustad and want him out after months of inter-party turmoil.

But, shortly after the party statement, Rustad took to social media to declare he had not been removed, and was “not going anywhere.”

In a since-deleted post, Rustad said, “A political party’s board can throw around whatever creative terminology they like, ‘professional incapacitation’? Give me a break.”

Later, in the B.C. Legislature, Rustad was seen occupying the seat of the Leader of the Opposition.

The party says Surrey-White Rock MLA Trevor Halford had been appointed as interim leader, but even Halford said the matter was still in question.

“We are trying to figure that out. Obviously, we are in some pretty incredible, unprecedented times. And what I’ve been calling for is stability,” Halford told The Canadian Press in Victoria Wednesday.

Rustad defiantly told media, “We’ll see how this plays out.”

University of the Fraser Valley Political Scientist Hamish Telford says Rustad needs to face reality.

“The executive seems to have secured the support of half of the caucus — or more than half the caucus –, and so they’re declaring John Rustad now incapable of leading the party, and they’re ousting him,” Telford explained.

“If he wants to hang on here and fight this politically, he is likely to rupture his caucus. And with more than half the caucus evidently unhappy with his leadership — others have already left the party for one reason or another. One way or another, a group could actually form the official opposition, and it wouldn’t be him.”

He says a protracted battle of party factions could be damaging, and the public may lose confidence in the BC Conservatives.

Caucus revolts, Telford says, are nothing new in B.C.

“That’s how the BC Liberals got rid of Gordon Campbell. It’s how the NDP got rid of Carole James. We can go further back into history and talk about Bill Vander Zalm. Caucus revolts are one of the primary ways leaders lose their jobs in B.C.”

Telford says Rustad will at some point succumb to the reality of the situation, and if he had accepted the ousting sooner, it might have worked out well for Rustad.

“There could have been a role for him to play in the B.C. Conservative Party as a second sort of leader. Think about Andrew Sheer and the role that he plays in the Conservative Party, federally, behind Pierre Poilievre,” Telford noted.

“But if he chooses to fight this to the death, then he’ll probably have no role to play in the party going forward.”

Telford suspects Rustad is struggling to let go of his chance at becoming premier.

“Political leaders tend to not want to go. They are ambitious, they’re arrogant. We saw that with Justin Trudeau last year and Joe Biden last year.”

—With files from Sarah Jones.