Prime Minister Justin Trudeau confronted about dropping popularity, leadership

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is about to face forces within his own party questioning his leadership.

Trudeau is set to attend Wednesday’s Liberal caucus meeting where some MPs are expected to confront him over his dropping popularity.

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However, despite mounting pressure on the PM, there is no official mechanism in the Liberal Party to trigger a leadership review.

“There used to be,” said Nelson Wiseman, University of Toronto political science professor emeritus. “But the Liberals were so enamoured with Trudeau’s victory in 2015, they changed their rules in 2016.”

Wiseman says MPs can only increase pressure on the prime minister to step down.

“Beyond that, it’s up to Trudeau,” he told 1130 NewsRadio.

Dennis Pilon, chair of York University’s Department of Politics, says the Liberals have traditionally been less focused on rules around leadership reviews than other parties.

“As a traditional governing party, [they] have often played fast and loose. Even when they have rules, they don’t necessarily follow them,” he explained.

“Ultimately, it’s going to take a critical mass of people to revolt. That’s how this leadership thing will happen. Right now. I think the opponents are taking a quiet approach, they’re leaking some stuff to the press, they’re expressing their disfavour, but they are not out and out rebelling against their leader — yet.”

Pilon says it’s not clear how many MPs will confront Trudeau in the caucus meeting.

“It comes down to whether they are prepared to spend their political capital to get rid of the prime minister. All the members have to weigh the potential costs of that behaviour because if you go in hard and you’re the only one there, you are isolated.”

The risk, he explains, is that the PM would shut them out.

“But at the same time, members are looking ahead and thinking there will be an election soon — maybe they will all go down if they don’t spill some blood right now.”

Pilon points out it doesn’t happen as often in Canada, but when polling numbers start to drop, leaders often step away.

“You’re supposed to do the honourable thing and fall on your sword,” he said. “But, for whatever reason — and maybe Trudeau has information the rest of us don’t — he just seems to be going forward like there’s nothing the matter, everything is good, just wait for the next election.”

“It’s a tough spot because it looks like he’s not moving and there is clearly unhappiness among the rank and file that this going to be a debacle for the party.”

On Tuesday, Trudeau’s cabinet ministers made a show of support after meeting with the PM. Trudeau has brushed aside any suggestion his leadership is in danger.