Conservatives gather in Calgary for convention where Poilievre will face leadership review

The Conservative Party of Canada kicks off its convention Thursday in Calgary, and the fate of leader Pierre Poilievre hangs in the balance.

Poilievre is expected to pass, but political strategist Jamie Ellerton says he’ll need a lot more than 50 per cent.

“This is where the politics of this comes into play, in terms of what the technical requirement is and what the perception is amongst people,” he said on The Big Story podcast. “For Poilievre I think you’re going to probably have to see something in that upper sixties.”

Ellerton says there is one positive for Poilievre when it comes to his future as the party’s leader.

“One of the things that’s working in Pierre Poilievre’s favour right now, is that fact that no one is actively organizing against him to provide an alternative,” he explained.

The last time there was a mandatory leadership review in the Conservative Party was for Stephen Harper in 2005 after he lost the 2004 election to the Liberals. He got 84 per cent member support in the vote and went on to be prime minister from 2006 to 2015.

A new leger poll finds the federal conservatives at 38 per cent, well behind the Liberals. But in Alberta, the Tories remain strong at nearly 60 per cent.

Poilievre became the MP for Battle River-Crowfoot in an east-central Alberta by-election after losing his long held Ottawa-area seat in the last federal vote.

Since then, he has lost two party members to Mark Carney’s Liberals.

Despite strong party support in Alberta, political analyst Amanda Alvaro says Poilievre’s biggest challenge remains drawing more Canadians under the big blue tent.

“You can have all the base you want, you can get all the support you need in a review, when you go out to a general election you have to have a broader base appeal,” she said. “He’s particularly lacking in that among female voters, so he’s going to have to shift his message a bit to bring more people in.”

Ellerton points out that Poilievre has engaged more with mainstream media, which he shunned in the spring vote.

“It is clear that Mark Carney is enjoying a “rally around the flag effect,”” he said. “Canadians writ large across the political spectrum don’t like Donald Trump and anytime Mark Carney is seen taking the president one-on-one, that is boosting his numbers and his appeal to all Canadians regardless of political stripes.”

Against that backdrop, former Alberta Premier Jason Kenney has been unusually loud on social media, defending Canada’s position against U.S. President Donald Trump and criticizing separatist figures.

As long as Trump remains in the picture, political analysist Marion Nader says that gives credence to the governing Liberals.

“Poilievre is really great as being the leader of the Opposition, but now he has to decide if he wants to be prime minister, he needs to change his game,” she said.

Only delegates who attend the convention in person will be able to vote. The convention is also a chance for delegates and grassroots members to suggest policy changes. Dozens of proposals will be discussed behind closed doors in breakout sessions, and some of those will eventually make their way to the convention floor.

However, Poilievre isn’t bound by anything proposed at the convention.

Among this weekend’s attendees will be Premier Danielle Smith, who will address delegates on Saturday.

The convention runs until Saturday at the BMO Centre.