It’s going to be hot in B.C., El Nino is on its way back

Will it be an even hotter year in B.C. in 2023?

Climatologists are predicting the warming El Nino climate pattern is cycling its way back and it will push up global temperatures even higher later this year and through 2024.

The deadly heat dome of 2021 and the heat and drought of last year are still fresh in the memories of many British Columbians, and Canada’s senior government climatologist points out those came during the cooling influence of El Nino’s opposite.

“What’s alarming is this occurred during a La Nina, which tends to mask the warming. In large parts of the world, it tends to cool it off. And yet we still had the fifth warmest year on record with a very pronounced La Nina,” says David Phillips with Environment and Climate Change Canada.

The current La Nina climate cycle — which typically includes colder, snowier conditions through B.C. winters — is on its way out, making way for the El Nino cycle.

As that pattern takes hold, some climate scientists are warning 2024 could bring 1.5 degrees Celcius of warming globally since pre-industrial times for the first time ever, a taste of what is expected in the decades ahead and bringing more soaring highs and unprecedented heatwaves.

Phillips says that is concerning, with international efforts aimed at limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees by the end of the century.

When it comes to the potential for more extreme weather in B.C. in the coming years, Phillips feels it’s hard to pin things on El Nino or La Nina patterns.

“But over the last three La Nina years, we had temperatures that average about a degree warmer than normal. When we had a pronounced El Nino in 2015 and 2016, both years were the warmest on record in British Columbia and, overall, the warmest in the world.”

It is that overall temperature that Phillips points to, noting we may not see the same kind of extremes in 2021 and 2022.

“If we go to an El Nino year, it’s telling me the year itself could very well be much warmer than normal, but I’m not saying it would necessarily be recorded warm in the summer, but it could be you get a warm winter, spring, summer, and fall, and therefore the average turns out to be much greater than normal.”