What to expect with the B.C. election 2 months away

In exactly two months, British Columbians will be heading to the polls to decide which party is going to govern this province for the next four years. As we inch closer to that date, things on the campaign trail are set to intensify.

Political analyst David Moscrop says now is the time people will really start to dial in to what’s happening across the political landscape.

“The formal campaign period will be furious,” he explained. “The one thing that might be notable is you might start to see numbers start to move a little bit. When the formal election launches, people pay a little more attention, typically, so they might get to know the candidates a little better.”

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Moscrop says this is the time for people to get a better idea of who BC Conservative Leader John Rustad is, adding, this election is a two-party race between the Conservatives and the BC NDP.

He thinks the Conservatives have a decent shot at causing some disruption for the NDP but ultimately believes the New Democrats will win.

“In all probability right now … if you’re a betting person, you bet on the NDP right now, not only because they’re ahead in the polls but if you look at the distribution of where their support is, it looks like they’ve got the right votes in the right places, which makes them the most likely to win the most seats. But anyone who remembers 2013 and Adrian Dix and the cover, ‘This man could kick a dog and still win,’ remembers that things can change.”

Dix ran for leader of the NDP in the 2013 election and all the polling and reporting leading up to election day showed he’d win in a landslide. He was defeated.

Some may not recall that David Eby didn’t win the last election, he simply took over for then-Premier John Horgan, who stepped down amid health concerns.

“The NDP hasn’t been around that long, and they haven’t annoyed voters quite as much, so I don’t think [Eby’s] disadvantage will be so pronounced that it’s going to hamper him, and he has had time to govern. Is he going to be a good campaigner? That’s an open question,” said Moscrop.

As for BC United, Moscrop thinks Leader Kevin Falcon and friends will be left embarrassed on election night.

“No politician is ever going to give up, they’ll switch to a save-the-furniture strategy. They might win a seat or two, but they’ll be lucky to. It’s become that grim,” Moscrop said.

Four years ago, voter turnout was just over 54 per cent, but Moscrop predicts that will go up a bit this time around.

“One is, the pandemic isn’t ranging like it was in 2020 when turnout dipped, compared to 2017 and even 2013. And the election could be pretty close and close elections do broadly tend to drive up turnout. I’m not saying it’s going to get into the 70s, but with a little luck, you may get into the 60s.”

He adds some people are turned away from voting because of all the negativity leading up to it or because they don’t think their vote will make a difference.

Election day is Oct. 19. Stay with us for full coverage in the lead up to and on election day, both on-air and online.