BC United campaign suspension catches pollster off guard

BC United Leader Kevin Falcon’s move to kill off the party’s campaign has sparked some major questions about what this fall’s election will look like.

Falcon’s move to call it quits caught Research Co. pollster Mario Canseco by surprise, even though he suggests the path may have already been laid out given plummeting poll numbers and the number of ridings where the former BC Liberals had yet to find a candidate.

“When you take into account the nastiness of the statements going out of BC United, particularly Kevin Falcon towards the BC Conservatives, it makes this even less likely just 24 hours ago,” Canseco said. “But here we are.”

“We have pictures of the candidates in the Lower Mainland with Kevin Falcon on Sunday saying that they’re going to fight a good fight. And less than 48 hours later, here we are.”

Falcon explained on Wednesday it was the right thing to do for the province and to prevent a vote split. He’s now urging his supporters to head over to the BC Conservatives and help defeat the NDP government.

But Canseco feels some BC United supporters won’t just make the switch so easily.

“It’s not that simple. It ultimately has to do with a riding-by-riding assessment,” Canseco said.

“They’ve been listening to their leader speak volumes about the motivations of the BC Conservatives and the types of candidates that they’re running and the types of things that they’re doing,” he explained.

He says some BC United voters may become disenchanted with the Conservatives, and there are other questions about how things will shake out in ridings where there are remaining big-name BC United candidates. Will the Conservatives pick them up, and what happens to that party’s current candidates?

Canseco suggests the Fraser Valley and Okanagan will be interesting races to watch as the dynamics of October’s provincial vote have now changed drastically.

B.C.’s provincial election is slated for Oct. 19.