Could B.C. gas prices be affected by Tuesday’s U.S. election?

Drivers on this side of the border may want to keep a close eye on who wins Tuesday’s U.S. election, as American energy policies could impact the price you pay at the pump.

“There’s been a lot of talk, mainly from Donald Trump’s side of the aisle about, ‘Drill, baby, drill,’ which may actually be counterintuitive, because former president Trump’s promise of cutting energy prices in half could actually be counter-productive for the oil sector, causing them to drill less,” Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, told 1130 NewsRadio.

Drilling less could lead to a trickle-down effect in this province as B.C. gets much of its fuel from the U.S.

“There could be a change in policies across the U.S. while [Kamala] Harris has not necessarily given too much insight into what she would change when it comes to the oil industry,” adds De Haan.

Both Harris and Trump agree on this one thing — they want to keep prices down while expanding production, with Harris leaning more towards clean energy.

De Haan points to changes that kicked in after President Joe Biden took the oath four years ago.

“In a matter of hours, President Biden had signed several pieces of legislation or presidential powers that drastically changed the future of oil markets by cancelling the Keystone XL pipeline. Former President Trump has hinted that he could restore the permit for that pipeline, if he’s elected, although Trans Canada has said it has abandoned the Keystone XL project,” DeHaan explained.

“It just goes to show there’s a lot on the line when it comes to energy policy. Former president Trump being more friendly to the oil industry, and that could mean lower oil prices, maybe not significantly lower prices, whereas Ms. Harris comes from a more progressive background, which could continue Biden-era policies that are generally seen as more restrictive, but not necessary component of why oil and gas prices have been higher the last few years.”

He’s not predicting an immediate drop or spike in prices, regardless of who wins, but warns you about long-term prices.

“We don’t know who’s elected and what they may do on day one, that could have significant repercussions. Once we see the verdict of how Americans vote, I’m sure the president-elect may have more to say about their potential policy changes come next January. Of course, Canada’s carbon tax is certainly highly talked about, as well. If there’s a shift in policy, there could be different relations between the U.S. and Canada.”

De Haan says seasonal trends are already underway. Prices are and will slowly continue to decline thanks to the switchover of a cheaper winter blend, and less demand as temperatures drop.

“Prices will probably bottom out in January or February and then gas prices will begin their seasonal march higher, no matter who’s elected. Those seasonal trends have been very tried and true over the last several decades.”

That means prices will stay low through the winter, rise in the spring and drivers could potentially see a huge spike in the summer.

“Again, the carbon tax going up is a permanent disconnect that will drive prices back close to or potentially above the $2 a litre mark. Moving forward in the years ahead, getting to see a sub-$2 price in the midst of summer is going to be more and more challenging,” said De Haan.

He stresses the taxes you pay are also a big deciding factor in the price at the pump, reminding you B.C. pays some of the highest gas taxes across the country.

Right now, he points out that B.C.’s average gas price is $1.65 a litre for regular gas. It’s above $1.70 across many spots in Metro Vancouver.