TransLink will be forced to cut services by 50% if funding is not found: report

Metro Vancouver’s transit provider says it will need to slash services by 50 per cent if a new funding model is not found.

In a report shared with the Mayors’ Council on Thursday, TransLink says the cuts would be needed by the end of 2025.

“TransLink is facing a funding gap of approximately $600 million each year – a shortfall in the budget to operate current transit service levels throughout the region. Without funding, TransLink faces the prospect of cutting transit services to balance its budget. TransLink recently announced $90 million in corporate cost-efficiency and revenue measures to help reduce the funding gap,” TransLink said in a statement.

According to the report, the $600-million-budget shortfall would mean a significant cut in services, “including cutting bus service in half, reducing SkyTrain and SeaBus trips by up to one-third, and potentially eliminating the West Coast Express commuter service.”

“The impacts won’t just be felt by transit riders,” said TransLink CEO Kevin Quinn.

“It would be felt by the entire region. We anticipate that congestion on our roads would increase as tens of thousands of new cars enter our region’s roadways.”

The report, which was made at the request of the Mayors’ Council, says the potential cuts would see up to 675,000 people no longer within walking distance of a transit stop and up to 265,000 jobs no longer accessible by transit.

“We don’t mean it as a threat,” Quinn said.

“I think we’re trying to be realistic with folks that, you know, in 18 months we run out of money. We fall off a fiscal cliff.”

During the meeting, Port Coquitlam Mayor Brad West, chair of the Mayors’ Council, shared that the report “paints a picture” of what transit could look like in the region if funding isn’t secured and “if the next provincial government doesn’t come into office ready on day one, to work with us.”

“The consequences that are outlined in this report are hard to imagine. And yet, I think it’s incredibly important that we’re very upfront with the public about the reality that TransLink is in,” West added.

Quinn described the possible cuts as “devastating,” and said the transit provider is doing “everything we can to stop them from happening.”

“Unfortunately, this is a window into our reality if a solution to our outdated funding model is not implemented. We need all levels of government to come together to protect and expand transit service to meet the needs of Metro Vancouver’s growing population,” Quinn shared.

TransLink explains that the relief funding from the province has been “pivotal” in protecting service levels since the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, however, that funding ends at the end of 2025.

TransLink claims that if services were to be cut, “it would take at least a decade to return transit services and ridership back to current levels, even if investments return.”

“I hope it generates a commitment from the next provincial government about how they will work with us to save transit and keep our region moving forward,” West continued. “None of us want to paint scary pictures or engage in doom and gloom. But, I think we have a responsibility to be very straight up with the public in this region, and for them to understand the reality that we face.”

This latest report from TransLink staff comes after months of warnings about the possible impact to services as the provider faces a “fiscal cliff.”

In June, TransLink released a series of “efficiency measures,” including “corporate cost-cutting” which the transit operator said will save $90 million per year.

TransLink has highlighted its economic challenges for months. These include the decline in revenue from fuel taxes as the region shifts toward electric and hybrid vehicles. TransLink says last year, it collected $34 million less than 2022, and the losses are projected to continue.

TransLink also cited the below-inflation fare increases that occurred during 2021 and 2022. “With no fare increase in 2020 and 2.3% increases in all subsequent years, TransLink’s costs have risen faster than fare prices have increased,” it stated.

It also noted the increasing costs of service and expansion, including construction, labour, fuel, maintenance, and new vehicles. That includes “additional operating costs for expanding bus service and for new expansion projects like the Broadway Subway Project and Surrey–Langley SkyTrain which will require significant funding to operate once complete,” it explained.

West hopes that after Thursday’s meeting, TransLink will hear from other levels of government about how to address the funding shortfall and mitigate any cuts to service.

“We saw in the last week, the re-announcement of the permanent transit fund with a couple of new details, but no new additional money,” he explained. “And really, a repackaging of something that has been announced several times over the last number of years.”

“Quite frankly, it is just not good enough, particularly [considering that] the pressure that our system is under right now stems from so many decisions that have been made in Ottawa, with respect to population growth,” West continued.

“The idea that the federal government would wash their hands of those decisions, and not step up in a meaningful way … I think it is incredibly irresponsible.

“And so, we continue to call for a permanent transit fund that is at a scale to meet the needs of our region and that is accelerated so we can get on with these projects. Not in two years, but today.”

The Greater Vancouver Board of Trade says any reduction in transit services would be devastating to the local business community, with CEO Bridgitte Anderson saying the potential cuts could affect tens of thousands of jobs.

“Transit is a very important part of our economy, to be able to keep people moving within the economy,” she told CityNews.

“These kinds of cuts could impact people getting to their jobs, getting to school, to customers, being able to get to buy, to shop, to employers getting to work.”

Anderson says the group is calling on all levels of government to come up with a new funding solution.

“It’s clear that revenue model is not working, given the reliance on gasoline-powered cars is changing, and a number of other factors,” she said.

“We need to find a new revenue model, and we have to ensure that transit is sustainable and it is also being funding adequately for the growth that we’re seeing in our region.”

In an email, Transportation Minister Rob Fleming said, “In just the last two years, we provided almost $800 million to ensure services were not cut, and to expand much needed service across the region … Our commitment to public transportation continues as we work with TransLink and the Mayors’ Council on the Access for Everyone plan to continue expanding transit service.”

With files from Monika Gul.

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