First poll after BC United campaign suspension shows little change in race

The first poll after BC United Leader Kevin Falcon announced the party was suspending its election campaign is out, and it shows the move to ‘unite the right’ hasn’t panned out, at least not yet.

The new survey from Pallas Data suggests there hasn’t been a surge of voters to the BC Conservatives.

According to the poll, if a vote was held on Thursday, Aug. 29, 44 per cent of respondents would have voted for the BC NDP, with 43 per cent voting for the BC Conservatives.

“The key finding is that things still remain deadlocked,” Pallus Data pollster Joseph Angolano said. “The hope of Kevin Falcon was to have the BC United support automatically translate to the BC Conservatives. It hasn’t worked, at least not initially.”

“It’s going to take some time before that is going to happen, if it’s going to happen at all.”

He adds that BC United was a party of coalition voters — some centre-left, centre, and centre-right, so “they’re not going to automatically go to the Conservatives because Kevin Falcon said so.”

“This has not been the game changer that some hope would be,” he added.

There have already been the first signs of a fight for the middle, with both the BC NDP and BC Conservatives making appeals to orphaned BC United voters.

“You better start looking at some centrist kind of policies for the Lower Mainland and the good people that live down there, because I know that they’re not into far-right or far-left divisive policies, said BC United MLA and former candidate.

“They just want to have good governance and good people running the government of British Columbia.”

Angolano explains the New Democrats are especially looking good in Metro Vancouver where elections are typically won and lost because of the number of ridings.

“The NDP are in better shape. I’m sure they would like to get a few more points, gain a little bit more in Greater Vancouver, pick up a little more in the rest of B.C. to really shore up their position and get reelected,” Angolano told 1130 NewsRadio.

“The conservatives have a different game to play. They are going to have to do a lot more work in convincing the former BC United supporters to join them,” he added.

Angolano explains it’s not just “one plus one equals two” for the Conservatives.

“Voters have their own minds, and just because the leader of a political party wants to quit in the middle of an election, that doesn’t mean that they’re automatically going to get their voters going to the Conservatives.”

Meanwhile, the BC Greens picked up some votes, Pallas Data shows. Angolano explains the Greens picked up two percentage points in the latest survey, but “it’s not enough to make a difference for their prospects. It’s still a two-party race.”

–With files from Cole Schisler and Jack Morse.