Expect a dramatic end to the B.C. election: expert

It’s been a long 30 days for the political parties and voters as the province inches closer to finding out who will form the next government in B.C.

The election campaign ends on Friday and there’s a lot to unpack over the past month.

Several themes have reappeared during the campaign. Health care, public safety, crime, housing, affordability, the economy, and to an extent, the toxic drug crisis.

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David Moscrop, a political writer and former political scientist at Simon Fraser University (SFU), says the parties made a lot of promises and threw around a lot of money, but were thin on actual solutions, which he cautions won’t happen overnight.

He says it’s hard to say who won the campaign, adding it wasn’t so much that the BC NDP did well, but that the BC Conservatives shot themselves in the foot with repeated missteps.

“The NDP campaign has been lackluster and broadly uninspired and, in many cases, defensive,” he explained.

“It’s been a fairly weak campaign. That said, it has been surpassed in weakness by the utter incompetence and consistent scandals of the BC Conservative campaign which is truly just an ongoing dumpster fire that no one has been able to put out.”

Moscrop says if the Conservatives lose, it’ll be their own fault.

“Just day after day of scandal and outrage, and a candidate who had said this or that in the past — things that would be utterly disqualifying in normal times. And so, the BC NDP has been the beneficiary of a Conservative party incapacitated to run a campaign like adults.”

However, he points out the race is tighter today than anyone could have predicted a year ago, so despite the issues plaguing the Conservatives, there’s no guarantee the NDP will pull out a win.

Moscrop understands the housing crisis in this province but believes the BC NDP has done a better job addressing it than other provincial governments.

“The NDP government in British Columbia has probably been the best sub-national government on housing. If you look around the country and say, ‘OK, who is working hardest on housing?’ It’s been the NDP,” Moscrop said.

“They’ve sort of come alive on the file. The BC Liberals, prior to them, weren’t really on it. And you have to contrast the NDP’s plans with the risks of the Conservatives, which is … austerity.”

He also thinks there’s a decent chance results won’t be decided this weekend and we could see a repeat of the 2017 provincial election. That’s when none of the parties had a majority for the first time in decades. Then-Premier Christy Clark said she wanted to remain in office, however, her government eventually fell in a confidence vote in the Legislature, and the BC Greens and NDP signed a confidence and supply agreement to prop up an NDP government.

“This is one difference about 2017. In 2017, you can look and say the Greens tried to decide between the BC Liberals and the BC NDP. You could imagine it going either way. In 2024, I highly doubt you would see Sonia Furstenau making a deal with John Rustad.”

More ‘fractious’ legislatures in Canada if there’s a Conservative opposition: Moscrop

Should the NDP return to Victoria, Moscrop says that with a Conservative opposition, “you’re going to see one of the more fractious legislatures in the country and in the recent history of the province.”

“One thing that’s notable about the BC Conservatives and the BC NDP is they are more polarized than parties have been in a long time and the animosity between those two parties is considerable.”

If the Conservatives win, Moscrop stresses it’ll be a major test for Leader John Rustad.

“Say, if Brent Chapman wins, does that person remain in caucus? Does that person get a cabinet job or a committee job? What do you do with them? And it’s going to be interesting to see if Rustad does win, how he handles members in his party that simply aren’t fit to be there.”

Chapman has been connected to multiple controversies throughout this election.

Overall, Moscrop thinks the NDP will win, but can’t say whether they’ll have a majority.

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