Despite BC United losses, election not a slam dunk for Conservatives: expert

BC United has taken some hits the last few days, with MLAs and candidates either announcing they’re defecting or resigning from the party ahead of the next provincial vote.

A political analyst says while the BC Conservatives are in a good place right now, they’ll still have to fight hard through the campaign period.

BC United Caucus Chair Lorne Doerkson, who represents Cariboo-Chilcotin, announced on Friday that he was defecting to the BC Conservatives. Then, on Monday, Surrey South MLA Elenore Sturko confirmed she too was crossing the floor, to join John Rustad’s party.

These are just the latest high-profile figures distancing themselves from BC United in recent days. Others are being urged by some now-former candidates to do the same, and to check off the Conservative box on their ballot come October.

Hamish Telford, an associate professor of political science at the University of the Fraser Valley, says, as it stands right now, BCU is running only 14 current MLAs for reelection.

“I’m not sure if we’re going to see more floor-crossings, actual elected MLAs from BC United going over to the Conservatives, there are not that many left. BC United is at 24 or 25 MLAs, but only 14 of them have agreed to carry on as candidates for BC United in the next election. The others have either defected or decided not to run for their own reasons,” he told CityNews Tuesday. “Of the ones left, the BC Conservatives are not interested in all of them, to be frank, for various reasons.”

He says it’s possible other candidates, who are not yet in legislature, may decide to quit, just Brandon Fonseca, who was set to run for BCU in the riding of Coquitlam-Maillardville, announced Tuesday.

In her decision, Sturko said she was defecting to “rebuild the coalition that’s needed to defeat the NDP.” She added that it’s “easy to dismiss the polls, but it’s impossible to dismiss what I hear on the doorstep when I’m talking to voters.”

Telford notes that polls are accurate to the point in time that they are done. However, they are not necessarily a prediction of what’s to come, with Telford explaining they can quickly change.

He points out BC United has more experience running campaigns, Kevin Falcon has the advantage of more name and face recognition, and the party is in a better place financially than the Tories so far.

“So it’s entirely possible that BC United will be able to run a more robust and professional campaign. It’s entirely possible that Kevin Falcon will perform better in TV debates, it’s quite possible that people who are saying they’re going to vote for the BC Conservatives now don’t quite know who their leader is, and when they see him perform in the TV debates, they’ll say, ‘Oh, I didn’t know that was the guy who’s leading the party I support.’ It may cause them to rethink how they’re going to vote,” Telford explained.

Despite this, Telford says BC United is currently “fighting for their political life,” adding it won’t be easy.