What’s next as BC NDP secure slim majority in 2024 election

It took a while, but the B.C. election is officially over with the BC NDP nabbing a very thin majority.

Elections BC released the final ballot count results on Monday, with the NDP securing 47 seats, the BC Conservatives with 44, and the BC Greens with two seats. Forty-seven is the magic number for a majority.

The only thing from this election that remains up in the air is the outcome of the judicial recounts in two ridings — Surrey-Guildford and Kelowna Centre — where the margin of victory is less than 1/500th of the total number of votes cast.

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“In Kelowna Centre, the threshold for a judicial recount is 49 votes. The difference between the top two candidates is 38 votes. In Surrey-Guildford, the threshold for a judicial recount is 38 votes. The difference between the top two candidates is 27 votes,” said Elections BC in a release.

Elections BC adds that if parties would like a recount in other ridings, “An application for a judicial recount must be made within six days of the conclusion of final count. The deadline for judicial recount applications is November 4. Applications are made to the Supreme Court of British Columbia and must be on the bases set out under section 139 of the Election Act.”

What happens next?

With the election finally over, things are about to get very busy in Victoria.

Richard Johnston, professor emeritus of political science at UBC, says premier-elect David Eby will have to name his cabinet after some ministers did not seek re-election.

Eby will then need to look toward the throne speech and choose a speaker for the Legislature.

“If they don’t have the Greens on their side, assuming everyone is present and voting, the speaker will have to break the tie. If it comes to that, the speaker will do that, but it is an awkward situation when the person who is the supposedly neutral presiding officer of the house, has to as a matter of routine, vote with the government. It happens. It’s the way it is, but it’s a little awkward.”

Johnston suspects that with such a slim margin, the NDP will have to ensure all of its MLAs are on hand for every vote and predicts they’ll be treading water to get out of the gate.

“I think the best thing is to keep the Greens happy enough, so they don’t feel provoked to vote against them. I don’t think it will be a particularly imaginative government, I don’t think. I can’t imagine them having a terribly ambitious Legislative agenda,” he explained.

“They have to bend a little bit on environmental things, which could get awkward for them, but I think the essential thing is we’re not looking at a party that has a mandate for big, new things. Not that the NDP campaigned on much that was big or new.”

Prior to the final ballot count being released, BC Conservative Leader John Rustad was clear — he will do what he can to bring down the government. Johnston thinks he’ll stand by that.

“He has a backbench that is potentially unruly. They represent a pretty deep well of resentment and they will feel compelled to express that somehow. So, I think it will be necessary for him to attempt to make the ride for the government a rough one.”

Johnston says at the top of the priority list for Eby will have to be initiatives to address crime, public safety, healthcare, and housing.

Eby is holding a news conference at 11 a.m. Tuesday and the BC Conservative Leader John Rustad is set to speak at 2 p.m.

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–With files from Raynaldo Suarez.